Tuesday, 11 August 2020

IT stocks see most price upgrades | US virus aid may get delayed | Fortunes turning for troubled NBFCs

MORNING NEWSLETTER

12 Aug, 2020 | 08:43 AM IST


Good Morning!

When RBI announced the one-time debt recast plan last week, it was careful not to fall into the trap that a similar exercise had created during 2010-2016, when continuous evergreening of loans had left Indian banks saddled with heaps of bad loans. Hence the panel to oversee the restructuring plan. Fitch says by allowing the recast, RBI has also opened a window for banks to build capital buffers even as they put off full recognition of the Covid impact on loan portfolios. Indian banks are already burdened with over $120 billion in bad loans and the sector is ranked third-worst among 13 major world economies in asset quality. It remains to be seen if the once-bitten-twice-shy banking system can manage this round better.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 103 points lower at 7 am (IST) this morning, signaling a negative start ahead for Dalal Street.

    On Tuesday, Nifty50 breached its recent swing high of 11,341 on an intraday trade basis, but could not hold above that level. Analysts said the formation of indecisive candles over the past couple of days suggests the bulls are tired.

    Asian stocks drifted this morning amid doubts over the timing of a spending package from Washington. Shares ticked lower in Shanghai, Sydney and Seoul. Hong Kong opened flat, while Japan climbed.

    US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow snapping a seven-day streak of gains and falling late in the session on growing uncertainty about breaking a stalemate in Washington over a fiscal stimulus deal. Dow ended 104.53 points, or 0.38%, lower, while S&P500 lost 26.78 points, or 0.80%, and the Nasdaq 185.53 points, or 1.69%.

    The rupee appreciated by 12 paise to close at 74.78 against the US dollar on Tuesday tracking weakness in the greenback and gains in the domestic equity market.

    The dollar found support on Wednesday, as a jump in US yields pushed it higher against the Japanese yen. The greenback was steady against the euro and firm against the Australian dollar. The offshore yuan fell 0.1%.

    Crude oil prices rose marginally. WTI crude traded 0.4% higher at $41.76 per barrel.

    Gold prices plunged to Rs 53,951 per 10 gm this morning while silver dived to Rs 72,354 a kg. On MCX, gold futures slipped nearly 6% to Rs 51,739 while silver futures nosedived 12% to settle at Rs 66,347 a kg. In global markets, the yellow metal rose 0.3 per cent this morning after Tuesday's massive fall to trade at $1,917.57 an ounce.

LOOK WHO'S

IT shares seeing most upgrades… Technology shares have seen some of the biggest target price upgrades by analysts after the June quarter results as these companies are seen to be among the best insulated in the downturn. Analysts increased their price targets on shares of companies — both large- and midcap — by 11-29%. Though many of these stocks are close to these targets after the recent rally, analysts think there is more room for upside. TCS, Infosys and HCL Tech are their top picks. Companies that have seen the most target price hikes after the June quarter results are IT firms like NIIT Technologies, Infosys, Mphasis, L&T Infotech, Cyient, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Mindtree, KPIT Technologies and TCS. Read More

New govt stimulus in the works... The government is likely to soon announce fresh measures, including big-ticket infrastructure projects and policy changes, to make local industry more competitive, as part of efforts to rebuild the economy in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, said people with knowledge of the matter. Prime Minister Narendra Modi may himself unveil some of these steps, which could also include an initiative to reorient the tax administration, said government sources. Read More

SC declares daughters equal inheritors… Putting the last nail on male primacy in division of Hindu ancestral property, the Supreme Court, in a landmark judgment on Tuesday, cleared the legal cobwebs to declare daughters will have inheritance rights equal to those of sons from properties of fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers right from the codification of the law in 1956. The bench said irrespective of whether the father was alive or not, daughters born before September 9, 2005, too could claim equal right in inheritance. A bench of Justices Arun Mishra, S Abdul Nazeer and M R Shah ironed out the confusion arising from the apex court's conflicting interpretations of the amended Section 6 of Hindu Succession Act, which came into force on September 9, 2005. Read More

SUVs spring hope for Motown… When the going gets tough, off-roaders get going. SUVs are steering a comeback for the Indian car industry, providing some much-needed cheer to the coronavirus-battered companies. According to numbers released by industry body Siam, SUVs clocked 14% growth in volumes in July over the year-ago period. Models such as Hyundai's Creta and Venue, Kia's Seltos, Maruti's Brezza and Ertiga, Mahindra's Bolero, and even the Rs 1 crore-plus Mercedes-Benz GLS have been among those powering the SUV surge. Read More

AND WHO'S

Industrial output contracts in June… India's industrial output contracted for the fourth successive month in June, led by a decline in manufacturing, mining, electricity and capital goods segments as the coronavirus-induced lockdown continued to take a heavy toll on the crucial sector. Data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday showed the index of industrial production (IIP) contracted 16.6% in June, compared with a fall of 33.9% in the previous month and 1.3% expansion in the same month last year. For the April-June period, industrial output contracted 35.9% compared with an expansion of 3% in the year-ago period. Read More

Gold, silver on crash course… Gold and silver prices fell for the third day in a row, amid the dollar holding on to gains and Russia's announcement of a Covid-19 vaccine. Spot price for 24 carat gold in India fell over 5% to Rs 52,440 per 10 gm, while the price for 22 carat was Rs 48,091. The price of silver too declined, was down 7% to fall below the Rs 70,000 level per kg on Tuesday. Read MOre

I-T raids on Chinese entities… The income-tax department on Tuesday launched a massive search operation on a few Chinese individuals, their Indian associates and some bank employees in Delhi, Gurgaon and Ghaziabad for suspected links to money laundering and hawala deals running into several thousand crores of rupees. Premises of the suspects were searched "based on credible information," an I-T department statement said. Read More

Meanwhile...
Govt identifies 10 sectors for disinvestment… The government has identified 18 strategic sectors for disinvestment, including coal, crude oil, power, steel, telecom, atomic energy and defence, allowing presence of 3-4 PSUs in each space. The 18 sectors have been divided into three categories — mining and exploration, manufacturing and services. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,257  -56.0
13,837  -31.82
22,227 + 326.95
18,057  -102.45
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

RIL, India's most valuable company in terms of market value, has entered the world's top 100 companies on the Fortune Global 500 list after eight years.

HDFC has managed to reduce its funding costs in the past three months by about 185 basis points, far exceeding the extent of reduction in the headline lending rate by the central bank.

ONGC has sought exemption from the applicability of some of the corporate governance norms, especially those pertaining to the board's composition and evaluation.

Maruti Suzuki India and Hero MotoCorp could put manufacturing on a higher gear in September, ahead of the festive season.

A dani Ports and SEZ on Tuesday said its board has approved a proposal to raise up to Rs 3,000 crore through issuance of non-convertible debentures.

UnQuote: BAD OMEN
Coming market correction to hit all sectors & stocks
Atul Suri, Marathon Trends

The DAY PLANNER

    Earnings: Ashok Leyland | Auro Pharma | Bharat Forge | Cummins | Natco | Tata Power
    India July CPI Inflation Rate (05.30 pm)
    UK June Balance of Trade (11.30 am)
    UK Q2 GDP Growth Preliminary Estimate (11.30 am)
    UK June Industrial Production (11.30 am)
    Euro Area June Industrial Output (02.30 pm)
    US July Inflation Rate (06.00 pm)

OUTLOOK

Metals seeing a cycle change
    Deepak Shenoy of Capital Mind says commodities tend to do really well in a potentially inflationary environment as does gold. "The rise in gold prices has preceded all of this and caused some kind of a flutter in commodities. Also, a recovery typically tends to involve infrastructure spending. A lot of companies worldwide are doing so. There will be some demand for steel and copper worldwide. Given this, you might see a cycle change, it has already started. We have seen prices of steel go up marginally," says he. Read More

As existing MF investors exit, new ones come in
    Sunil Subramaniam of Sundaram Mutual says when the market crashed in March, a lot of people who would have invested in equity funds in a year or two ago, suddenly saw them go below their investment value. "In this bounceback, those who felt their wealth was getting eroded, saw it come back to a capital protection level. They would feel let me walk out with my money as the economy outlook is still uncertain. While existing investors are trying to escape after recouping their losses, there is new money coming in which is betting on a V-shaped recovery," says he. Read More

Buy pharma at every opportunity
    Deven R Choksey of KR Choksey Investment Managers says most of the pharma companies are very well positioned as far as the branded generic and the complex generic products are concerned among which you can count Cipla, Lupin and Sun Pharma. "There is one positive point as far as pharma is concerned. Given that they have complex generics, that would give them advantage as far as their outlook in the US market is concerned. One should buy these stocks when the market gives an opportunity," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Bata India Ltd. 11 Aug, 2020 | 02:08 PM IST SellSell
Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd. 11 Aug, 2020 | 11:37 AM IST buyAdd


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