Sunday, 4 October 2020

Analysts project solid IT show in Q2 | TCS to consider share buyback on Oct 7 | RIL goes hunting $1b overseas debt

MORNING NEWSLETTER

5 Oct, 2020 | 08:36 AM IST


Good Morning!

The clout of financial stocks in Nifty is falling rapidly from above 35 per cent at one point, as if to mark the beginning of a historic trend in the 50-pack, which changes its contours every 10 years. And Big Bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala says pharma and IT, which now hold just over 4 per cent and 16 per cent respectively, will soon come to enjoy much bigger weightage in the index. While banks will still have a place of pride, manufacturing sectors are going to stand out significantly. That can be a good starting point for long-term investors.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 30 points lower at 7 am (IST), indicating a weak start ahead for Dalal Street.

    Nifty' overall structure remains positive for a 'buy on decline' strategy as supports are gradually shifting higher. Analysts said the index has to hold above 11,333 level to witness a further rise towards 11,500 and then 11,600 levels.

    Asian stocks climbed this morning as traders reacted to the possibility President Donald Trump may be able to leave hospital as soon as Monday. Shares saw strong gains in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia, where markets are open though volumes are expected to be low because of a holiday. South Korean stocks saw a more modest rise.

    US stocks closed lower on Friday on news of President Donald Trump testing positive for Covid-19. Dow fell 134.09 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 27,682 while the S&P500 lost 32 points, or 0.96 per cent, to 3,348.44.

    Oil prices rose more than 1% on comments from doctors that Trump could be discharged from hospital by Monday. Brent rose 52 cents, or 1.3%, to $39.79 a barrel, while WTI crude gained 59 cents, or 1.6%, to $37.64.

    The rupee appreciated by 63 paise, or 0.85 per cent, to 73.14 against the US dollar on Thursday. The currency market was closed on Friday for an official holiday

    The dollar held tight ranges against its peers while yen retreated on Monday. The yen fell 0.2% while the euro rose 0.2%. The British pound was little changed

    Gold prices fluctuated last week as it declined to Rs 50,449 per 10 gm on Monday and then rose marginally to Rs 51,389 per 10 gm on Thursday in the national capital. In the previous trade, gold had closed at Rs 50,643 and silver had declined Rs 933 to Rs 59,274 per kg. The yellow metal was little changed at $1,900 an ounce in international markets on Monday

LOOK WHO'S

Solid IT earnings likely in Q2… India's IT services firms are expected to report better numbers in the quarter to September, demonstrating the optimism they shared earlier of increased technology spending by global clients to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic induced economic crisis. The virus outbreak hampered profit and revenue growth at the software services exporters in the previous quarter, but improvement in demand for technology services and a strong order book will be reflected in the results for companies including Infosys, TCS, HCL Technologies, Wipro and Mphasis, analysts said. Read More

India Inc's equity raising hits record… Equity fundraising by Indian companies has hit a record this year, surpassing even the best years of 2017 and 2019, data collected by ET show. Booming capital markets, low interest rates, ample liquidity and an urgent need for beefing up defences in a pandemic-hit economy is making India Inc raise record amounts of cash. Indian companies have raised Rs 1.49 lakh crore in April-September against Rs 1.47 lakh crore in the entire 12 months ended March 2020. Read More

RIL drops plan for Viacom18-Sony merger… Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries, which has a majority stake in Viacom18 though Network18, has called off the proposed merger of the entertainment businesses of Sony Pictures Networks India and Viacom18, following a strategic rethink. Digital media and entertainment are now essential pillars of Reliance Jio's business and it has consequently decided to retain a majority stake and management control, according to people familiar with the matter, who said Reliance would invest and grow the digital media business. Read More

Telcos likely to see surge in revenue… Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea are likely to report sequential gains in mobile revenue and operating income in the July-September period, following a surge in recharges by users as Covid-19 lockdown curbs were eased, analysts said. Jio is expected to have benefited from higher user additions and gains in average revenue per user (Arpu) from home broadband customers, they said. These factors would help Jio report strong profit growth. Read More

Banks breathe easy over interest waiver… The government's proposal to pick up the tab for the waiver of "interest on interest" on loans of up to Rs 2 crore clears the uncertainty over bank earnings for the quarter, giving them room to offer liberal loan-rejig terms to stressed borrowers. The relief is likely to cost the Centre Rs 5,000-5,500 crore, according to the finance ministry's initial estimates. Rating agency ICRA has pegged the cost at Rs 5,000-7,000 crore. Read More

AND WHO'S

Family feud haunts Finolex… Eight resolutions pertaining to the appointment of directors at Finolex Cables (FCL) were defeated at the Pune-based company's AGM last week by majority shareholder Prakash Chhabria, the son of Finolex Group's late founder Pralhad Chhabria, bringing back to centre stage an ongoing feud in the Chhabria family. The resolutions were moved by Prakash Chhabria's cousin and current FCL executive chairman Deepak Chhabria. Read More

Traders brace for big Bank Nifty swing… Option traders have baked in a 3% move either side on Bank Nifty early this week from Thursday's close. The 21,525-22,875 range is based on Thursday's closing value of the 22,200 straddle — call and put option — expiring on October 8. The Bank Nifty spot closed up 3.7% at 22,246 Thursday. Read More

Stormy GST Council meet ahead… The GST Council meeting on Monday could be a stormy one as opposition-ruled states clash with BJPruled ones over how they should be compensated for the shortfall in collections and are likely to force a vote on the issue. Opposition-ruled Punjab, Kerala, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Puducherry insist that the Centre must borrow to compensate them for the revenue loss on account of the transition to the GST regime and are likely to invoke the dispute resolution mechanism. Read More

India Inc projects 51% capacity utilisation… India Inc is estimating capacity utilisation to rise above 50% during the second half of the fiscal year, according to an industry survey released on Sunday. A substantial percentage of the 115 CEOs polled by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) expect conditions to improve going forward. "A large percentage of the CEOs polled have shown confidence in the days ahead, indicating that the worst may be behind," said a CII statement. Read More

Meanwhile...
FinMin says demand surge palpable … India may have crossed the Covid-19 peak and the declining positivity rate will help fuel an economic recovery, the finance ministry said, while adding that it was "not averse to taking any further measures to ameliorate suffering of people." The economy was "regaining normalcy," with a palpable resurgence in demand in many sectors, the ministry's Department of Economic Affairs said in its monthly review for September. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,125 + 141.95
14,970 + 103.08
22,246 + 794.2
20,110 + 159.05
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

Realty firm Embassy Group has initiated talks with logistics fund ESR to sell its warehousing and industrial business, Embassy Industrial Parks (EIP), for more than Rs 900 crore.

RIL plans to raise about $1 billion through a syndicated overseas loan at the lowest interest rate in more than a decade, and SBI and MUFG together will likely lend about $600 million and seven other banks will advance the remainder.

GAIL has initiated preliminary talks with IL&FS and US-based Global Infrastructure Partners to pick up at least 49% in ONGC Tripura Power Company at a valuation of Rs 1,500 crore.

TCS will consider a buyback of shares on October 7, when the company board meets for the second quarter results, India's largest IT services company said on Sunday.

UnQuote: EARNINGS OUTLOOK
Nifty earnings growth in FY22 likely to be 35-40%
Mahesh Nandurkar, MD & HoR, Jefferies

The DAY PLANNER

    Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI Final Sept (06:00 am)
    Russia Markit Services PMI Sept (11:30 am)
    Japan BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech (12:10 pm)
    Euro Area Markit Services PMI Final Sept (01:30 pm)
    UK New Car Sales YoY Sept (01:30 pm)
    US Markit Services PMI Final Sept (07:15 pm)
    Eurogroup Video Conference

OUTLOOK

Why nobody likes SBI?
    Dipan Mehta of Elixir Equities says nobody has really made money in SBI, and for some reason or the other, it has been an underperformer and all the reasons for buying it are known to the Street. "There is no real trigger as far as SBI is concerned. Yes, there is value in its subsidiaries, but there is a holding company discount in SBI. They know how to completely divest their subsidiaries and raise a large amount of capital and distribute it to shareholders. They still continue to lose market share and prominence as compared to say an HDFC or a UTI or Axis Bank," says he. Read More

Gold financiers safest bets?
    Independent market analyst Sandip Sabharwal says gold financiers are the safest bets in the financial sector, as they have moved down after the initial move along with the rest of the financial sector. "Unlike many other stocks which made new lows, gold financiers have held up and have not made new lows. I would think as the financial sector stabilises and moves up, these companies will do better. Out of the two, I like Mannapuram," says he. Read More

Signs that market is in for a big rally
    Independent Market Analyst Kunal Bothra when a rally starts off from the first day of an expiry day, it generally trickles into a multi-expiry or a multi-month up-move. "Banking, financials and cement stocks have made a comeback. Many stocks in other sectors like sugar have also made a very strong comeback. In the last two-three series, we have seen the Open Interest (OI) on Nifty and Bank Nifty reaching a much higher scale. You are seeing this ferocious rally because there was a lack of participation at the start of a fresh series," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Carborundum Universal Ltd. 1 Oct, 2020 | 09:53 AM IST buyBuy
Voltas Ltd. 1 Oct, 2020 | 10:13 AM IST buyBuy


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