Monday, 20 January 2020

Debt MF investors run for cover | FII protection law coming | IUC blow for Airtel, Voda in Q3

MORNING NEWSLETTER

21 Jan, 2020 | 08:34 AM IST


Good Morning!

The most confusing bit about the current stocks rally is that it is not showing any sectoral trend. One generic theme that has already played out has to do with non-leveraged midcaps and smallcaps. And now it's all about bottom-up evaluations. Analysts say the hunt now should be for structurally good businesses that are facing cyclical headwinds because of one reason of the other. These are the stocks that would make money once these cyclical headwinds go away.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded nearly 62 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling weakness ahead on Dalal Street. Asian shares got off to a cautious start on Tuesday lacking any lead from Wall Street and after the IMF shaved its outlook for world growth this year, though it did offer a brighter view on China. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was fractionally down 0.04%. Moves elsewhere were likewise modest, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.1% and South Korea's Kospi 0.04%.

    US markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

    Oil prices rose on Tuesday after Libya declared force majeure on two major oilfields following a military blockade and protests escalated in Iraq, raising supply concerns. Brent crude traded 11 cents higher at $65.31 a barrel and WTI crude rose 20 cents to $58.74

    The rupee slipped 3 paise to close at 71.11 against the US dollar on Monday, tracking a steady rise in crude oil prices and weakness in domestic equities.

LOOK WHO'S

FII Protection Law on Anvil… A new legislation aims improve protection for foreign investors in India by offering relief from possible policy changes but will uphold the state's right to tax them. The bill attempts to upgrade India's investment climate and boost foreign investment by setting up new adjudicating authorities to swiftly resolve disputes. It is part of India's efforts to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024. But the draft text of the new law dated Nov. 15 does not cover demands related to enforcement of tax obligations, a critical area of concern for foreign investors. Read More

Telcos Back in SC... Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea have moved the Supreme Court in a bid to delay payments that are due Thursday. Tata Teleservices has also done so, said people with knowledge of the matter. The operators want to be allowed to negotiate conditions and schedules for payment of statutory dues with the Department of Telecommunications (DoT), according to their petitions. Vodafone Idea told the court that if no relief is forthcoming, it will have to shut. Read More

No Bitcoin Ban… The Reserve Bank of India has said it had not banned cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin in India, but only ringfenced regulated entities like banks from risks associated with trading of such virtual instruments. The central bank said this in a response to a petition filed by the Internet and Mobile Association of India, which wanted it to reconsider a 2018 circular directing regulated entities not to deal in cryptocurrencies. Read More

WHO'S
Debt Investors' Dilemma... The markdown in papers of Vodafone Idea by Franklin Templeton, which has led to markto-market losses of 4-6% for investors in schemes that held the paper, has revived worries about the safety of debt mutual fund products. In the last two years, there have been mark-to-market losses in various debt schemes due to schemes holding paper of IL&FS, DHFL and some ADAG companies. Investors have been hit across categories of mutual funds — be it ultra short term, duration or credit. This has perturbed debt mutual fund investors who are increasingly wary of putting money into these schemes. Read More

Bleak Growth Outlook… IMF has slashed its estimate on India's 2019 economic growth to 4.8% from the 6.1% expansion it projected in October, citing a sharper-than-expected slowdown in local demand and stress in the non-bank financial sector. The steep cut in India's growth rate has weighed on IMF's projection on the world economy, which it now expects to have expanded 2.9% in 2019 compared with the previous forecast of 3.0%. IMF's World Economic Outlook Update revised India's 2020 growth forecast to 5.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous estimate. For 2021, the estimate is 6.5%. Read More

Meanwhile...
Double whammy for telcos… The telecom regulator's recent decision to defer implementation of the zero-interconnect usage charges regime appears to have boomeranged on Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel, say analysts. Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Jio now stands to pocket as much as Rs 1,600 crore in interconnect fees from the two older carriers over the next one year, having become a net IUC recipient in the October-December period, analysts said. Vodafone Idea and Airtel, they said, could report lower operating income in the December quarter itself. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,973  -101.15
14,651  -57.53
31,081  -510.0
16,207  -149.45
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Power Grid Corp has decided to launch an Infrastructure Investment Trust (InViT) through which India's central transmission utility proposes to raise from the public about ?10,000 crore by listing specific units backed by a pool of assets.

    DoT has slapped a Rs 48,000 crore demand notice on Oil India in past statutory AGR dues, an order which the country's second-biggest state oil producer plans to challenge in TDSAT.

    IOC has agreed to an annual deal to buy 2 million tonnes of Russian crude oil, a first for any Indian refiner that would help diversify supply sources and cut India's dependence on West Asia.

    The Competition Commission of India has approved Brookefield Asset Management's Rs 25,215 crore acquisition of 51% stake in Reliance Jio's tower arm via its affiliate BIF IV Jarvis India.

    The JSW Group, Adani Group, Srei Infrastructure and the Piramal Group have submitted expressions of interest to take over the 1,200-MW Lanco Anpara project, raising expectations of partial recovery for lenders from the bankrupt Lanco Group.

    Leading line-pipe maker Welspun Corp is likely to declare a special dividend before March with the Rs 250 crore it received from its US unit.

    An arbitration tribunal has restrained Bidvest from transferring its stake in GVK Airport Holdings, the holding company for Mumbai International Airport, dealing a blow to Adani Group.

    State-owned non-life insurer National Insurance Company has approved its merger with Oriental Insurance Company and United India Insurance Company.

    Online food delivery and restaurant discovery platform Zomato has acquired the Indian operations of Uber Eats, the food delivery business run by Uber, for around $350 million (Rs 2,485 crore).

UnQuote: STOCK PICKING
Telling investors to gradually tilt towards mid, smallcaps
Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO-Equity, Kotak Mutual Fund

The DAY PLANNER

    Q3 Earnings: Zee | HDFC AMC | ICICI Pru Life | IndiaMart | Havells
    ECB President Lagarde Speech
    BoJ Interest Rate Decision
    BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report
    UK Nov Unemployment Rate

OUTLOOK

PVT BANKS: TOP 3 LOOK THE SAME
    Kunj Bansal, Partner & CIO, Sarthi Group, says quite a good amount of alpha has played out in ICICI Bank for 20-22 months. "Now onwards it will be more or less a similar kind of journey for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank or Kotak Bank. I do not think there will be significant differentiation from now onwards although the valuation for ICICI Bank is yet to come at par with the others," he said.

MIDCAPS: OPPORTUNITIES GALORE
    Pankaj Murarka of Renaissance Investment Managers says there are lots of attractive opportunities in the midcap space on a bottoms-up basis. "Valuations are looking reasonable and one can make reasonable returns over the next few years. The risk-reward is favourable. Midcaps as an asset class have undergone a steep correction and from that perspective, they are looking attractive at this point of time," he said.

CEMENT: RECOVERY ON
    Vinod Karki of ICICI Securities says cement is one sector where despite sluggish volumes, the price action has been good. "Realisations were better and volumes are expected to pick up from here on as the government's focus on infrastructure continues and may get a better push in the Budget. They have already shown their intent to spend over a Rs 100 lakh crore over next five years. Broadly, the picture looks good for a small demand recovery," he said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Indian Bank 20 Jan, 2020 | 11:44 AM IST buyBuy
Castrol India Ltd. 20 Jan, 2020 | 11:46 AM IST buyBuy


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