Thursday, 16 January 2020

Goyal takes dig at Amazon | Bain to back Munjal's Max bid | SC body blow to Voda, Airtel

MORNING NEWSLETTER

17 Jan, 2020 | 08:29 AM IST


Good Morning!

While there is a strong case for a relook at the LTCG tax, simply because globally most developed markets with which India competes for capital do not have it, the other irritant for Indian financial markets has been the dividend tax, which has a rather skewed structure. It taxes the same income repeatedly at multiple points: companies pay tax on profit, then they pay distribution tax when they pass on the same profit to its rightful owners, and then shareholders pay income-tax when they earn that dividend. A perfect way of disincentivizing risk capital.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded nearly 7 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness on Dalal Street. Asian shares inched higher after global stock indices and Wall Street posted more records, as strong corporate earnings and upbeat US economic data added to the optimism over the China-US partial trade deal. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    In early trade, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.19%, taking gains for the month to 3.4%. Australian shares gained 0.49% while Japan's Nikkei added 0.55%.

    Wall Street witnessed another day of record closing in overnight trade. The Dow rose 0.92% to 29,297, the S&P500 gained 0.84% to 3,316 and the Nasdaq added 1.06% to 9,357.

    Oil prices were steady on Friday as investors braced for data expected to show China's economic growth last year slid to its slowest pace in 29 years. Brent rose 3 cents to $64.65, after gaining nearly 1% on Thursday. WTI crude gained 6 cents to $58.58

    The rupee fell 11 paise to close at 70.93 against the US dollar on Thursday due to strengthening crude oil prices and dollar demand from importers.

LOOK WHO'S

Hero-Max Deal… US private equity buyout group Bain Capital is looking to join hands with Sunil Munjal's Hero Corporate Services to buy a controlling stake in Max Financial Services from Analjit Singh. Munjal, along with Bain, may buy 28.3% from Singh and make an open offer to minority shareholders. If successful, the consortium could end up holding 54.3% in Max Financial. The acquirers are also considering the option of buying just below 26% stake to avoid triggering the mandatory open offer, and replacing Singh as the promoter. Read More

The French Route... France is fast emerging as the gateway for foreign investors to route their trades — mainly equity derivative – into the country following the renegotiation of tax treaties with Mauritius almost three years ago. Almost a quarter of the outstanding positions in India's F&O contracts and a growing chunk of the bets on India through Offshore Derivative Instruments like P-notes and swaps are being executed through French banks or subsidiaries of some global firms based in Paris. Under the tax treaty between India and France, the right to tax capital gains on investments lies with Paris. Read More

Bankers' Relief… All big suspected bank fraud cases will have to be vetted by a panel before lenders agencies such as the Central Bureau of Investigation to initiate action. The framework has been designed to allow bankers to take decisions without fear and free up credit flows, a top government official said. Read More

WHO'S
Body Blow to Telecom… The Supreme Court rejected pleas by Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel and Tata Teleservices to review the October 24 verdict that widened the definition of adjusted gross revenue, leaving the three telcos collectively facing more than Rs 1.02 lakh crore in additional licence fees, spectrum usage charges, penalties and interest. Analysts and industry executives said Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel are likely to file curative petitions, besides applying to the court for more time to make the payments — a combined Rs 89,000 crore for the two. Read More

Goyal Rocks the Boat… Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said Amazon was not doing India any favours a day after the company's CEO Jeff Bezos pledged to invest an additional $1 billion in the country, adding that this was probably on account of a need to fund losses, remarks that are likely to be seen as a stinging rebuke to the world's richest man. "How can a marketplace make such a big loss unless they are indulging in predatory pricing or some unfair trade practices? These are real questions which will need answers," Goyal said. Top executives at several MNCs and Indian companies took umbrage at Piyush Goyal's comment, saying it did not "reflect well" on India. Read More

Meanwhile...
Will RBI start targeting core inflation? Pronab Sen, the newly appointed chairman of the Standing Committee on Statistics, says core inflation target of 3% with an upper tolerance level of 4% and lower limit of 2% should be part of RBI's mandate, along with the headline retail inflation. Core inflation, excluding telecom tariffs, has entered deflationary territory, which is a cause for worry, Sen said. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,985 + 149.0
14,648 + 113.68
31,854 + 29.0
16,382 + 34.8
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Global distressed asset buyers are picking up Reliance Capital's junk-rated debt securities following an assurance by its home finance unit that 98% of retail debenture holders will get their money back

    GAIL India board has approved raising up to ?1,500 crore in debt to part-fund its pipeline capacity expansion plan

    Aditya Birla group company Birla Carbon is raising up to $1.5 billion through its maiden overseas bond sale

    Vodafone Idea is likely to approach the Supreme Court for extension of deadline to meet its obligations on adjusted gross revenue

    Moody's Investors Service placed Yes Bank's long-term foreign currency issuer rating of B2 under review, with the direction uncertain.

    Suresh Khatanhar has been appointed as deputy managing director at IDBI Bank with effect from January 15 for a period of 3 years.

UnQuote: TAXING WORRY
Dividend tax should go, it taxes same income at many sources
Aashish P Sommaiyaa, MD & CEO, Motilal Oswal AMC

The DAY PLANNER

    Q3 Earning: RIL | TCS | HCL Tech | L&T Finance | ICICI Lombard | L&T Tech | Blue Dart
    RBI Jan Forex Reserve
    India Jan Bank Loan-Deposit Growth
    China Q4 GDP Rate
    China Dec Industrial Production
    Euro Area Dec Inflation

OUTLOOK

AGR JOLT: BIG HIT ON VODA IDEA
    Analysts say the repercussions of the Supreme Court rejection of the plea to review its October 24 verdict on adjusted gross revenue (AGR) are likely to be serious, particularly for Vodafone Idea. "This will significantly weaken its balance sheet. For Vodafone Idea, it is an existential crisis for the company. Many lenders to these telcos were dreading this outcome, as it will add to their torrent of NPAs (both fund and non-fund based exposure," says Ajay Bodke, CEO – PMS at Prabhudas Lilladher.
RIL Q3: ANOTHER GOOD SHOW?
    JM Financial says RIL's revenue is likely to come in at Rs 1.51 lakh crore, down 0.8 per cent sequentially. Profit should grow 4 per cent QoQ (14 per cent YoY) to Rs 11,710 crore. "RIL's refining margins are expected to average around $9.4-9.6 (flat QoQ, up 7 per cent YoY), as higher crude premiums and shipping costs will be negated partly by lower opex and higher gasoline and naphtha margins and hardware upgrades. Reliance Jio's Ebitda is expected to rise 12-14 per cent sequentially aided by recovery of interconnect charges from consumers and marginal uptick in Arpu post December tariff hike," it said.

TCS EARNINGS: MODERATE GROWTH
    Kotak Securities expects TCS' revenue growth to moderate to 6.8 per cent YoY on constant currency terms due to slowdown in BFS and retail segments and a high base of the previous year. "On a sequential basis, we expect muted revenue growth of 0.8 per cent and peg profit at Rs 8,224.3 crore, up 1.5 per cent YoY, because of continued weakness in European banking and capital market clients in the US combined with account-specific challenges in retail vertical," it said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Container Corporation of India Ltd. 16 Jan, 2020 | 12:00 PM IST SellSell
Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. 16 Jan, 2020 | 11:46 AM IST buyBuy


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