Wednesday, 15 January 2020

US-China trade deal fails to excite | LTCG relief coming in Budget | Equity hedge trades to cost less

MORNING NEWSLETTER

16 Jan, 2020 | 08:25 AM IST


Good Morning!

Smallcaps have underperformed Nifty to the extent of 50% and midcaps to the tune of 35% since January 2018. Now as market participation widens, the catch-up trade has been more of a bottom-up trade, unlike in 2017, when the lowest quality stocks multiplied in a short period. This time, it's a stock pickers' market where companies with no corporate governance issues, good balance sheets and healthy earnings growth are taking away the rewards disproportionately. It's no longer a market that is ready to deliver a linear return every month.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded nearly 10 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling a tepid start to trade on Dalal Street. Stocks in Asia were mixed in the wake of the signing of the US-China trade deal. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    Shares in Japan and South Korea were largely flat, while Australian equities were modestly higher. Hong Kong and Shanghai saw a muted open.

    Overnight, US equity indices hit new highs on the trade deal, with the Dow closing above 29,000 for the first time. The S&P500 closed at a new high, gaining 0.2% to 3,289, while Nasdaq held steady at 9,258.

    Oil prices rose, propelled higher by the long-anticipated signing of an initial trade deal between Washington and Beijing that sets the stage for a potentially huge increase in energy supplies from the US to China. Brent gained 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $64.33 a barrel while WTI crude rose by 28 cents to $58.09

    The rupee on Wednesday found its winning ways after a day's hiatus, settling 5 paise higher at 70.82 to the US dollar as easing crude oil prices and weaker greenback lifted sentiment in the domestic forex market.

LOOK WHO'S

LTCG Relief Coming… The government has approached tax advisers and experts on the possible implications of removing the tax on LTCG introduced amid much criticism in the FY19 Budget. Tax advisers say the government officials are considering options to attract more foreign long-term investment and one proposal is to do away with LTCG tax on listed equities. The government may also tweak the definition of 'long term' from a year to two years. Currently, 10% tax is levied on LTCG. Read More

Hedged Trades to Cost Less?.. The cost of hedged trades will soon dip in the Indian stock derivatives market. Traders using a combination of equity futures and options to create strategies that would result in limited losses could see margins for such bets decline significantly with Sebi expected to cut margin requirements for 'hedged positions'. This could lead to the cost of such trades coming down by 60-70%. The Options segment contributed 92% to the average daily turnover of Rs 16 lakh crore in the equity derivatives segment in January. Read More

Bezos' India Bets… Jeff Bezos said Amazon will invest another $1 billion in India to help 10 million Indian small and medium businesses (SMBs) sell online amid nationwide protests by neighbourhood shopkeepers against his visit to the country and the competition watchdog ordering a probe into ecommerce platforms. Amazon, which has invested more than $5 billion in India since 2013, said its latest programme will help SMBs participate in India's rapidly growing ecommerce and that it hopes to export locally made goods worth $10 billion from the country by 2025. Read More

WHO'S
A Deal That Didn't Excite… The US and China signed an initial trade deal on Wednesday that will roll back some tariffs and boost Chinese purchases of US products, defusing an 18-month row between the world's two largest economies, but leaving a number of sore spots unresolved. There was skepticism the US-China trade relationship was now firmly on the mend. The deal fails to address structural economic issues that led to the trade conflict, does not fully eliminate the tariffs that have slowed the global economy, and sets hard-to-achieve purchase targets, analysts said. Read More

More Job Cuts... Job cuts at Oyo, across multiple roles and business functions, are likely to intensify, said senior company executives, as the SoftBank-backed hotel chain struggles to rein in costs and shore up bottom line. The magnitude of the layoffs may be "far larger" than expected, they said on the condition of anonymity. A significant chunk of the 12,000-strong workforce at the Gurgaon-headquartered company is likely to be impacted by the aggressive retrenchment move, they said. Read More

Meanwhile...
Budget Booster Coming for Phonemakers… The government could unveil a Rs 36,000 crore fund to provide production-linked incentives to smartphone makers to wean high-end electronic manufacturing away from China and Vietnam to India in the upcoming Budget. While this is aimed at attracting global supply chain companies such as Apple and Samsung to make India their manufacturing and export base, some other incentives like credit guarantee schemes and interest subvention schemes are being designed to help local phone makers. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,836 + 184.45
14,534 + 150.15
31,825  -246.75
16,347  -15.5
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    UltraTech and Ambuja are competing to further consolidate their grip in the east by taking over Emami Group's cement asset in a potential billion-dollar buyout

    Bharti Airtel has raised $3 billion through QIP and FCCBs, in what it called "the largest dual tranche equity and FCCB offering in the Asia-Pacific

    Tata Sons has finalised plans for a board meeting shortly, with the Supreme Court having stayed a tribunal order that had quashed the ouster of Cyrus Mistry

    Australia's Paradice Global Small Mid Cap Fund has sold 33.88 lakh shares of Tata Global Beverages through a bulk deal on NSE at Rs 390.12 per share

    SAT has stayed a Sebi order rejecting Axis Bank's request to allow it to invoke the pledge on shares in the Karvy Stock Broking case

    Troubled lender Yes Bank has appointed IDFC Securities as an adviser for raising funds and also to bring in a strategic investor.

UnQuote: INDIA TECH STORY
India's next big tech story will be a new name, not Infy or TCS
Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Stern School of Business, NYU

The DAY PLANNER

    Q3 Earnings: 5Paisa | Aditya Birla Money | Karnataka Bank | South Indian Bank | Rallis
    US Fed Beige Book
    China Dec Home Loan Growth
    US Jan Initial Jobless Claim
    ECB Lagarde Speech
    ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

OUTLOOK

RURAL RECOVERY: GOLD TO THE AID
    Pankaj Tibrewal of Kotak Mutual Fund says gold's solid performance as an asset classes in last one year is good news for rural India, because a large part of the gold resides in rural areas and the feel-good factor created by its spurt will at some point aid consumption and that should also help rural recovery. "Assuming Indians hold about 25,000 tonnes of gold approximately, then Indian households are richer by about Rs 15 lakh crore and that is a big boost from a wealth perspective," he said.

INFLATION: SIGN OF GREEN SHOOTS
    Independent Market Experts Sameer Narayan says inflation coming back is good news for India Inc as it means that the demand is there and they are willing to pay a higher price. "It is a good sign. Yes, the consumer demand is not there, there is a lot of constraint on the slowdown etc. but the case inflation is back is leading confidence that the economy may be on the mend," he said

REALTY: FEWER OPTIONS
    Siddharth Sedani of Anand Rathi says an increase in home loan rebate in the Budget can be welcome move by the government for the realty sector, as inventory levels are to the tune of 20-21 per cent. "These inventory levels should come down. But from a stock buyer's perspective, not many options are available. Some of the quality plays, which have better balance sheets are Oberoi or Godrej Properties. Rest are really vulnerable in terms of their balance sheet, debt and so and so forth," he said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Bajaj Auto Ltd. 15 Jan, 2020 | 12:03 PM IST buyBuy
National Aluminium Company Ltd. 15 Jan, 2020 | 12:04 PM IST buyBuy


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