Sunday, 9 February 2020

Some FPIs may attract retro rax | Traders go short on CIL, Eicher, ITC | No respite from slippages for top banks

MORNING NEWSLETTER

10 Feb, 2020 | 08:22 AM IST

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Good Morning!

The main grouse against Sebi's reclassification of market-caps for mutual funds was that it stymied domestic mutual fund managers' stock- picking abilities, leading to portfolio concentration, which caused even active funds to behave like passive funds. Now as Sebi takes a relook at this classification, expectations are that it would increase fund managers' wiggle room to buy stocks that are offering good value. Since these stocks lie among midcaps and smallcaps, such a move may draw money to second-rung stocks.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 12 points down at 7 am (IST), indicating a weak start ahead for Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, stocks fell while safe-haven gold rose as the death toll from a coronavirus outbreak surpassed the SARS epidemic, raising alarm bells about its severity. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan stumbled 0.7% to be on track for its second straight day of loss. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.8% while South Korea's KOSPI was off 1.4% and Australian shares eased 0.5% .

    Stocks fell on Wall Street on Friday causing the Dow to fall 0.9%, while S&P500 declined 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.5%.

    Oil prices extended their decline from an early January peak above $70 as the spectre of excess supplies loomed over the market after the spreading coronavirus outbreak hit demand in China, the world's largest oil importer. Brent hit a low of $53.63 a barrel and was down 38 centsat $54.09 while WTI fell 38 cents to $49.94

    The rupee declined by 22 paise to settle at 71.40 against the US dollar on Friday amid selling in domestic equities and strengthening of the American currency overseas.

LOOK WHO'S

Bank Merger Set to Kick Off… The government is likely to notify the merger of 10 public sector banks to create four big lenders later this week, as they have completed the groundwork for the same, two people familiar with the development said. After it is notified, the respective bank boards will meet to give their customary final approval and fix the all-important swap ratio for the mergers. Each bank had its own valuers and harmonisation of valuation for the merging partners has also been done. Read More

Taxmen Bullish 12% Growth Target… A 12% growth in tax collections next fiscal may look ambitious to some but for Revenue Secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey it is achievable in an economy that is projected to clock a 10% nominal GDP growth. The economy slowing down to its slowest growth in 11 years together with a cut in corporate tax rates led to the government missing its tax collection target by a wide margin in the current fiscal. The tax shortfall also led to slipping on fiscal deficit target for the third year in a row. Pandey told PTI he was confident of meeting the tax collection target of Rs 24.23 lakh crore for 2020-21. Read More

India, China Seek Simpler Tariffs… India and China have asked developed countries, including EU nations and the US, to simplify their tariff structures for agricultural goods and adopt a more transparent, value-based levy. Most developing countries including India use ad-valorem duties or tariffs expressed as a fixed percentage of the value of the imported product. The US had 820 distinct duties for agricultural goods in 2018, Japan 352 and Canada had 473 such bound tariffs compared to India’s 19 and China’s 40. Read More

WHO'S
Smallcap Challenge… Picking the right smallcap mutual fund scheme has become a challenge for investors. In the past one year, there have been stark contrasts in the performances of schemes within the smallcap category. The best performer in the space, Axis Smallcap Fund, returned 37.37% in a year, while HDFC Smallcap, which shed 1% in value, has been a notable laggard. Analysts said this polarisation in returns is the highest they have seen in the last 20 years. Data from Value Research showed that the average returns from the smallcap fund category have been 12.34% in the past one year. The S&P BSE Smallcap Index has moved up by 10.3%. Read More

Retro Tax Returns to Haunt FPIs… The Budget proposal to apply indirect transfer provisions to even Category II foreign portfolio investors could lead to the imposition of retrospective tax on certain transactions, said experts. The government had restricted the exemption from indirect transfer taxes to Category I FPIs in the budget. Previously, even Category II FPIs had enjoyed the exemptions. While making changes to the law, the government grandfathered or exempted only those transactions made by such FPIs till September 23, 2019, from the ambit of the new law. Effectively, even the investments made by Category II FPIs since September 24 will come under the ambit of the new law. Read More

Bad Loan Cloud over Banks… Indian banks, which reported healthy growth numbers in recent quarters, continue to be plagued by high slippages, especially from the corporate loan book. Top banks, including State Bank of India, Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank and Bank of India all reported a sharp rise in slippages in the December quarter, signalling that trouble is still brewing on the asset quality front. SBI saw its slippages almost double sequentially to Rs 16,525 crore. Axis Bank recognised slippages of Rs 6,214 crore. Kotak Mahindra Bank put new additions in bad loans at Rs 1,062 crore in the third quarter. Read More

Meanwhile...
Decriminalise Business Laws... India Inc has sought urgent steps to de-criminalise provisions in as many as 37 laws that impact businesses, including the Partnership Act and Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, to boost investor confidence and ensure ease of doing business. The CII has submitted a 12-point plan to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, which includes introduction of a one-time settlement scheme and compounding provision. The recommendations cover 37 laws and Acts ranging from the Partnership Act of 1932 to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code of 2016, which it said includes offences that are technical or those that do not affect public interest prejudicially. Read More
KEY INDICES
18,368 + 121.3
14,840 + 110.35
31,202  -102.1
16,470 + 99.0
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

    SBI, BoB and HDFC Bank may receive over a third of Rs 25,000 cr that Reliance Jio Infratel plans to raise through a listing of business as an investment trust

    DRL says it would keep focusing on emerging markets (which includes Russia and the CIS countries) and India for business growth, organically and via acquisitions.

    Punj Lloyd founder Atul Punj has made an offer to banks to reclaim his company from ongoing insolvency proceedings at the NCLT

    SFIO has summoned Sanjay Singal, the former CMD of Bhushan Power and Steel, in connection with its probe into the company's affairs

    The government is planning to sell 5 per cent stake in SAIL through an offer for sale, which could fetch about Rs 1,000 crore to the exchequer

UnQuote: STOCK IDEAS
Consumer staples trading at premium valuations, auto promising in long term
Pawan Parakh, Renaissance Investment Managers

The DAY PLANNER

    Q3 Earnings: Bharat Forge | Bombay Dyeing | GAIL | GRASIM | IndiaBulls Realty | IOB | MRF | Motherson Sumi | Union Bank
    Japan Dec Current Account
    China Jan Inflation Rate
    US Fed Bowman Speech
    US Jan Consumer Inflation Expectations

OUTLOOK

FMCG STOCKS: RETURNS TO SLOW
    Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal Financial Services says the quarterly performance of FMCG stocks has not been disappointing while valuations have always been expensive since last three years. "It remains a challenge for the entire FMCG pack. Yet, stocks that have been leading the rally will continue to do well, but the returns will not be like what it has been so far. Maybe, another 10-15% is warranted in these stocks, including in domestic FMCG companies, like Dabur," he said.
INFRA STOCKS: VALUE TRAPS!
    Shankar Sharma says steel, cement and infrastructure stocks are actually value traps. "One important message of the Budget was that the government was not going to write any big cheques for India Inc. The government wants industry to figure things out itself. This is going to keep the infrastricture businesses deadbeat," the ace investor said.

AUTO STOCKS: PLAY TWO-WHEELERS
    Rajat Sharma of Sana Securities says te two-wheeler and three-wheeler firms are the ones which have to make that shift into electric before the four-wheelers. "But a lot of these auto stocks are available at prices which are extremely attractive. If you were just beginning to make your portfolio for the first time or even if you were a seasoned investor, a lot of these two-wheeler stocks -- Hero and TVS -- are not going to go away anytime. So if you are getting them at prices at which you are getting them now, you should definitely stagger your investments across these stocks and add them to your portfolio," he said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Godrej Agrovet Ltd. 10 Feb, 2020 | 08:22 AM IST SellSell
Tata Steel Ltd. 10 Feb, 2020 | 08:21 AM IST SellNeutral


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