Thursday, 11 June 2020

Dalal Street looks headed for selloff | Indian pharma firms face US price-fixing probe | Govt plan afoot to ban crypto-currency

MORNING NEWSLETTER

12 Jun, 2020 | 08:41 AM IST


Good Morning!

Morgan Stanley says the prospect of negative interest rates from the Bank of England is looming back into view and feels the English central bank could even reduce rates as far as minus 50 basis points in 2021. BoE top brass has been saying negative rates are not going to happen in the near term. But besides Covid-19 disruption, Britain is also staring at a chaotic Brexit at year end. So, market watchers feel quantitative easing won't be enough to help the economy out of a historic recession, more so if there is a second wave of Covid outbreak. The MS commentary came a day after Fed's bleak forecast for the US economy, is warning us of a lot of pain ahead for the global economy.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 255 points down at 7 am (IST) signalling a major selloff ahead on Dalal Street

    On Thursday, Weak global cues weighed on Nifty50 as the index breached its immediate support range at 9,950-9,920 and closed just above the 9,900 level. The index fell below the 10,000 mark on a closing basis for the first time in six sessions, signalling a bearish bias.

    Asian equities are set to fall sharply. Japanese and Australian shares sank over 2% and Korean stocks were down about 3%. Hong Kong and Shanghai opened lower.

    Wall Street stocks tumbled overnight over growing concerns over a resurgence of coronavirus infections. Dow fell 6.9%, the S&P500 5.89% and the Nasdaq Composite 5.27%.

    The rupee fell by 20 paise to close at 75.79 against the US dollar on Thursday as a strengthening US dollar and weak domestic equities weighed on investor sentiment.

    The safe-haven dollar, yen and Swiss franc gained on Thursday as US stocks tumbled amid diminished expectations of economy recovery. The euro dropped 0.5%

    Oil prices slid early on Friday, extending heavy overnight losses on a surge in US coronavirus cases. WTI crude fell by $1.32, or nearly 4%, to $35.02 a barrel while Brent slipped $1.15, or 3%, to $37.40

    Gold prices jumped for fourth straight day on Thursday, rising by Rs 477 to Rs 48,190 per 10 gm in Delhi, while silver prices rose by Rs 26 to Rs 49,868 per kg. In global markets, furture prices climbs. Comex gold futures for August delivery rose 1.1% to settle at $1,739.80 an ounce, marking the highest closing price in more than a week.

LOOK WHO'S

FMCG players in expansion mode… Large consumer goods companies HUL, ITC, Parle Products, Britannia, Marico and Dabur are expanding production capacities beyond pre-Covid levels. In-demand products for FMCG majors are food and hygiene products as consumers continue to stock up, dine in and load up on sanitisers and soaps. Most of these companies saw their operations restored over the past two months. Now, with production at almost pre-pandemic level, they plan to step up supplies. Read More

Two-wheeler players ramp up fast… A strong post-lockdown preference for personal mobility choices over public transport has meant brisk two-wheeler sales, and leading manufacturers have ramped up production to 60-70% of normal levels within a month of factories opening up. According to several executives, Hero Moto-Corp, Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor are reaching out to suppliers to ensure 60-70% of normal output for June. Read More

Telco assets as AGR security… Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel are considering offering their spectrum, tangible assets and tax refunds as security to the Supreme Court, which asked them to show how they will pay their statutory dues. ET quoted a senior industry executive as saying that there are sufficient assets on the books of telecom companies to provide for security against staggered payment over 20 years. The apex court has asked the telcos to submit within the next five days their road map for payment of dues and the timeline along with the security they will furnish to protect future payments to the government. Read More

Health plans to cover more… India's insurance regulator says all expenses on telemedicine facilities, pharmacy, medical devices and diagnostics must be included in the scope of health insurance policies. IRDAI on Thursday issued three separate circulars directing the insurers to standardise the terms for all policies they underwrite. These directions are to be implemented in new products filed after October 2020. Read More

AND WHO'S

Indian pharma faces US price fixing probe… Domestic majors — including Sun Pharma, Lupin and Aurobindo Pharma — along with US biggies Sandoz, Pfizer and Mylan have been charged with price-fixing and collusion on topical dermatology medication in a fresh lawsuit filed in the US. This joins an earlier US probe charging domestic majors — including Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's, Zydus Cadila, Glenmark and Emcure — of a serious price-fixing conspiracy, which is pending with the courts. Several US states had accused major players of a price-collusion, widening an earlier lawsuit filed in December 2016. Read More

SBI hauls Anil Ambani to IBC… SBI has moved the insolvency court to recover more than Rs 1,200 crore from Anil Ambani under the personal guarantee clause of the bankruptcy law. It said Ambani had personally guaranteed loans taken by Reliance Communications, currently undergoing insolvency proceedings, which the state-owned lender is trying to recover. Read More

RBI may cap promoter CEO term… In a discussion paper on governance in commercial banks, RBI has sought to cap promoter's role at the helm of a bank at 10 years. The proposal comes in the wake of the Yes Bank being brought down by promoter Rana Kapoor, who held absolute control since the lender's launch in 2004. The discussion paper also proposes a 15-year cap on the tenure of a non-promoter CEO. If implemented, this could also have implications for promoter-CEOs like Uday Kotak, who has been leading his bank for 16 years. Read More

Meanwhile... Govt plans law to ban crypto… India is looking to introduce a law to ban cryptocurrencies, as the government sees a legal framework as being more effective than a circular from RBI in this regard. Finance Ministry has already moved a note for inter-ministerial consultations. A March 4 decision of the Supreme Court to quash the April 2018 circular of RBI that prevented banks from providing services in support of cryptocurrencies spurred the cabinet move. Read More
KEY INDICES
14,158  -184.2
11,830  -124.62
20,525  -574.95
14,619  -222.6
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

SBI has approved the sale of 2.1% stake in its life insurance arm SBI Life to comply with the minimum public shareholding requirement of 25%, likely fetching the country's biggest mass lender about Rs 1,500 crore.

Tata AutoComp Systems has tied up with US-based Tellus Power Green to set up electric vehicle charging stations in the country.

Shoppers Stop, India's oldest department store chain, is laying off more than 1,100 employees and closing some stores due to declining sales and bleak demand outlook for discretionary product

Carlyle has emerged as the frontrunner to pick up a significant minority stake in Ajay Piramal's pharma business for Rs 3,500-4,000 crore, said people in the know.

Disruption of global supply chains by the pandemic is delaying projects of ONGC, which may have to cut capital spending by Rs 4,000 crore to Rs 5,000 crore, or about 15% of this fiscal year's target.

UnQuote: RATERS' VIEW
S&P's rate affirmation acknowledgement of India's reforms
Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser, Govt of India

The DAY PLANNER

    Q4 Earnings: Hindalco | Eicher | M&M | Castrol | Fortis
    Japan Industrial Production (10.00 am)
    UK April Balance of Trade (11.30 am)
    UK April Industrial Production (11.30 am)
    Euro Area April Industrial Output (02.30 pm)
    RBI's Foreign Exchange Reserve (05.00 pm)
    India April Industrial Production (05.30 pm)
    India May Inflation Rate (05.30 pm)

OUTLOOK

India should bounce next year
    Andrew Wood of S&P Global Ratings says the rater does see a variety of risks to the Indian economy. "We are forecasting real GDP growth to fall by 5% this year and fiscal deficit to be 11% to GDP. So these are some stark figures and India is facing a difficult period as is the rest of the world right now. But these risks to the economy are probably going to be concentrated in a few areas. At the same time, we expect a strong recovery next year. We do see some promise in the government's reform measures as well," says he. Read More

India banking space remains a worry
    Adrian Lim of Aberdeen Standard Investment says there are things to worry about Indian banking and financial system. "The rising stress on weaker balance sheets and on weaker credit will be something that the banks will need to tackle and manage over the medium term. The moratorium is an effective tool for the short-term but the danger is that the banking system or the financial system relies too heavily on the moratorium and then neglects to sort out the difficult problems," says he. Read More

Pharma giving market growth hopes
    Surajit Pal of Prabhudas Lilladher says pharma stocks are being favoured because investors' risk appetite has become lower and lower. "There is a dearth of any other sector which can offer hope in terms of earnings growth; not necessarily price growth. Third point is that the pharma sector is also seeing some improvement of their businesses in the US market. It may not be that great, but the US market provides good revenue in US dollars, which is a bonus," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Hero MotoCorp Ltd. 12 Jun, 2020 | 08:20 AM IST SellHold
ICICI Securities Ltd. 11 Jun, 2020 | 02:51 PM IST buyAdd


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