Tuesday, 4 August 2020

FII short covering driving up Nifty | Axis Bank launches Rs 10,000 cr QIP | Gold goes through the roof

MORNING NEWSLETTER

5 Aug, 2020 | 08:39 AM IST


Good Morning!

It would now take more than 80 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. The typical gold-to-silver ratio that commodities markets track closely to figure out which of the bullion is cheaper is foretelling you a massive rally in silver or a comedown in gold. This ratio is considered normal around the 60 mark. It is no wonder, then, that some analysts on Dalal Street are asking investors to give the current sovereign gold bond a miss. Gold prices could correct sharply in the near term before rising in the long run, said one analyst. He is surely looking at the (gold-silver) ratio, which is now at a historic high.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 17 points higher at 7 am (IST) this morning, signaling a flat start ahead for Dalal Street.

    On Tuesday, Nifty50 snapped a four-day losing streak, formed a bullish candle on the daily chart and negated the lower highs and lows of the last four sessions. Analysts said follow-up buying would confirm the upside momentum.

    Asian stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors mulled the progress of stimulus talks in Washington and reports of a plan to review the US-China trade deal. Shares fell in Japan, Australia and Shanghai, but rose in South Korea. Hong Kong fluctuated at the open.

    Wall Street ended higher after a choppy session on Tuesday, lifted by Apple and energy stocks. Dow rose 0.62% to 26,828, while the S&P500 gained 0.36% to 3,306 and the Nasdaq climbed 0.35% to 10,941.

    The rupee pared some of its initial losses and settled 3 paise down at 75.04 against the US dollar on Tuesday, even as the domestic equity market was trading with significant gains.

    The dollar was under pressure on Wednesday from a towering euro and crumbling US yields. The Japanese yen rose as did the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The pound held steady.

    Oil prices fell for the first time in four days on Wednesday, pulling back from as much as five-month highs amid mounting coronavirus cases worldwide. Brent crude fell 16 cents, or 0.4%, to $44.27 a barrel, while WTI slipped 17 cents, or 0.4%, to $41.53

    Gold futures October contract hit a record high of Rs 54,480 per 10 gm on Tuesday, before dipping a tad to Rs 54392 late night India time. The rise reflected the jump in overseas gold to $2002.5 an ounce.

LOOK WHO'S

Options show Nifty may be heading for 11,200… Short covering in weekly index options and addition of fresh bullish bets on index futures — Nifty and to some extent Bank Nifty — by FIIs fuelled Tuesday's 200-point rally to 11,095. Weekly options data hint that the Nifty could immediately test the 11,200 resistance before moving higher, supported by heavyweights like Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank. Apart from buying a provisional Rs 704 crore shares, FIIs net purchased 22,560 index futures contracts Tuesday, up from 3,370 contracts a day earlier. Read More

HDFC Bank board to approve Jagdishan soon… Sashidhar Jagdishan will succeed Aditya Puri as managing director and CEO of HDFC Bank. He will take over from Puri, who's headed the bank since its inception 25 years ago, on October 27. "We wish to inform that the RBI has approved the appointment of Sashidhar Jagdishan as MD and CEO of the bank for a period of three years," the bank said in an exchange filing, adding that the board will meet soon to approve the appointment. Read More

Amazon, Flipkart big sales from tomorrow... India's top online marketplaces, Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart, are launching promotional events, beginning August 6, aimed at helping sellers liquidate old inventory and free up working capital ahead of mega festival sales, according to company executives. Amazon's two-day sale will be its first large promotional event since the easing of the lockdown. Flipkart's four-day event will focus on electronics, appliances and fashion, an analysis of the deals on the platform shows. Read More

July macro data shows bounce in economy… Early indicators of India's economic activity in July, like auto sales and electricity consumption, showed an improvement from June, though factory output contracted more sharply in July compared to the previous month, Nomura said in a note. The July uptick reflected post-lockdown normalisation and pent-up demand driven largely by a recovery in rural demand, however, continuous rise in daily cases posed a growing risk of tapering sequential improvements, it said in a on Monday. Read More

AND WHO'S

SBI chief says govt, India Inc must spend… SBI chairman Rajnish Kumar says the government and corporates have to open up their wallets to invest, and their actions should go hand-in-hand for a quick economic recovery since the vital middle class remains cautious amid ongoing unlocking of the economy. In particular, investment in infrastructure should be stepped up, he said. The ongoing payments moratorium has achieved the limited purpose it was aimed at, and RBI now has to look at providing restructuring relief to banks which would determine who would qualify for loan recast, he said. Read More

Voda Idea pays up govt dues… Vodafone Idea has paid the telecom department most of its Rs 1,200 crore dues towards licence fee and spectrum usage charge for April-June, after missing the deadline of July 15, people familiar with the matter said. Government officials said a further delay in payment could have led to the DoT invoking bank guarantees, as per rules — something the cash-strapped telco cannot afford. Read More

White House works overtime for Covid aid deal… White House negotiators on Tuesday vowed to work "around the clock" with congressional Democrats to try to reach a deal on coronavirus relief by the end of this week, as the pandemic takes a heavy toll on American life. Differences remained over unemployment benefits for workers made jobless by the epidemic, as well as liability protections for businesses, a moratorium on housing evictions and funding for schools, state and local governments and election security. Read More

Meanwhile...
New H-1B clause won't hurt India IT… US President Donald Trump's ban on federal agencies employing H-1B visa holders will have little impact on India's IT industry, as most software services providers hire local employees to service government customers, industry experts said. As of last September, there were an estimated 583,420 H-1B authorised work permit holders in the US and Indian nationals accounted for over 70% of the recipients. But they are increasingly being sent to work there by US technology companies such as Google and Apple. IT industry body Nasscom said Trump's order appeared to be based on "misinformation and misperceptions". Read More
KEY INDICES
15,640 + 171.7
13,317 + 162.35
21,490 + 418.4
17,808  -157.8
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

Bharti Airtel is set to sign a strategic alliance with Amazon Web Services, the cloud services arm of the retail giant, to tap small-and-medium businesses and take on the Reliance Jio Infocomm-Microsoft combine

Private lender Axis Bank has launched its qualified institutional placement (QIP) on Tuesday to raise up to Rs 10,000 crore.

SBI Card, the country's second largest credit card issuer, on Tuesday said Ashwini Kumar Tewari has taken over as its new managing director and chief executive officer, effective August 1.

In a series of bulk deals on Tuesday, HDFC Mutual Fund, DSP Mutual Fund, and Smallcap World Fund sold shares of Aarti Surfactants.

Maruti Suzuki is expecting sales in the second half of the ongoing fiscal 2021to match those in the previous-year period, before the market gets back to a phase of growth in FY22.

State-run oil companies have spent 13% of their annual capex target of Rs 98,500 crore in the first quarter of the financial year with Oil India spending at the fastest clip and GAIL the slowest.

Mondelez International, the maker of Cadbury Dairy Milk chocolates, said sales in India crossed $1 billion in 2019 and the country is now the third-biggest market for Oreo biscuits after the US and China.
UnQuote: INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Long-term investors, start booking profits now
Anand Tandon, Independent Market Analyst

The DAY PLANNER

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    US June Balance of Trade (06.00 pm)
    US Markit Services PMI Final July (07.15 pm)

OUTLOOK

Is new CEO positive for HDFC Bank?
    Lalitabh Srivastava of Sharekhan says there is a saying that if it is not broken, then do not try to fix it. "HDFC Bank has been doing the right things, making the right moves and Mr Jagdishan is also going to continue in the same vein. He is an insider and part of the management. So, in a way, this is a reiteration by the regulator of the current direction and the current stance that the bank has. Obviously the new leader will have his own strategic focus and his own game plan, but we can expect good things to continue for the bank," says he. Read More

Are bank stocks worth a look?
    Mukul Kochhar of Investec Capital Services says banking is roughly 35% of the index today, and that is down 35%. "This has a roughly 10% impact on Nifty. If I take out banking, the market is actually modestly up for the year. So, when we look at this market construct, we are saying everything will be okay, the economy will be okay, midcaps will be okay, small businesses will be okay, because everything has pretty much come up relative to the pre-Covid levels. However, in all this, banking is going to suffer and that construct one can question. If you are a modestly long-term investor, willing to take a bet till January or early next year, banking is the place to be," says he. Read More

Gold should correct now
    Sandeep Tandon of Quant Mutual Fund says all asset classes, which have seen one big momentum can correct, including gold. "From a longer-term perspective, we are extremely bullish, but for the near term the data is coming closer to the bottom, which indicates that gold has the potential to correct from these levels, while crude oil has the potential to rise. The consensus trade is going to collapse. Long term, we are very bearish on the dollar index but from a very near term perspective, it is reaching an inflection point," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Vinati Organics Ltd. 4 Aug, 2020 | 11:59 AM IST SellHold
Just Dial Ltd. 4 Aug, 2020 | 10:52 AM IST buyBuy


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