Thursday, 24 September 2020

Fewer F&O rollovers to Oct series | Tech indicators show stocks route may continue | RBI loan recast may end up half-baked

MORNING NEWSLETTER

25 Sep, 2020 | 08:39 AM IST


Good Morning!

As if renewed Covid spread, loss of momentum in economic recovery were not big worries enough; markets now have a new concern: Donald Trump says the US presidential election will "end up in the Supreme Court." Trump says he does not believe in postal voting, which comprised one-quarter of total votes in the 2016 election that threw him to power, and which is projected to rise substantially this time with six states planning to hold 'all-mail' ballot elections. Without evidence, Trump has condemned voting by mail as prone to fraud, and is reported to have said, "the ballots are out of control. There won't be a transfer, frankly, there'll be a continuation." Bad omen, frankly!

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 79 points up at 7 am (IST) this morning, indicating positive start for Dalal Street.

    On Thursday, Nifty50 barely held the 10,800 level and formed a large bearish candle, suggesting that the bears have taken the driver's seat. The formation of a long bearish candle and lower highs and lows for a couple of sessions are signalling a downside breakout in the market.

    Stocks in Asia rose Friday as investors weighed the chances of a new US stimulus package against an uptick in global coronavirus cases. Japan's Topix index rose 0.5, South Korea's Kospi gained 0.7% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4%.

    Wall Street rallied in a rocky session on Thursday as beaten-down technology shares gained favor after data showing a surge in the sale of new homes revived faith in the economic recovery. Dow rose 52.31 points, or 0.20%, the S&P500 gained 9.67 points, or 0.30%, and the Nasdaq 39.28 points, or 0.37%.

    Oil prices were little changed but on track for a weekly fall on concerns that a global resurgence of Covid-19 infections will constrain fuel demand. Brent crude slipped 2 cents to $41.92 a barrel, while WTI crude was 3 cents firmer at $40.34

    The rupee dived 32 paise to touch a near one-month low of 73.89 against the US dollar on Thursday, following massive selloffs in equities and concerns over continuous surge in Covid-19 cases

    The US dollar dipped from a two-month peak early Friday as renewed hopes of US stimulus eased investor concerns about economic recovery. The yen was little changed while the offshore yuan rose 0.1 per cent. The British pound managed to stay above Wednesday's two-month lows. Against the yen, the greenback stayed at its strongest level in over week,

    Gold and silver prices continued to fall for a fourth day in India on Thursday. On MCX, October gold futures slipped 0.45% to Rs 49,293 per 10 gm while silver futures lost 3 per cent to Rs 56,710 a kg. In four days, gold has lost about Rs 2,500 per 10 gm so far.

LOOK WHO'S

Another Op Twist to cap bond yields… RBI will aim to buy long-term bonds worth Rs 10,000 crore and sell an equivalent amount of shorter-duration papers in what is known as Operation Twist (OT). This should help cap rising benchmark yields, which have remained elevated on oversupply concerns. The central bank will conduct the latest OT auction on October 1 by buying three sets of securities maturing between 2025 and 2029. Read More

Temporary IBC suspension extended… The government on Thursday extended temporary suspension of certain sections of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code till December 25. Suspension of Sections 7, 9 and 10 of IBC for six months from March 25 — aimed at protecting stressed companies from being taken to insolvency court — was ending on Friday. Read More

Covid relief likely for road sector… The government is "actively" considering extending Covid-19 relief measures — due to end on September 30 — for the road sector by another six months. A ministry of road transport and highways official said the measures likely to be extended include monthly payment for work done and contract period. Read More

Gold loans seeing a surge… Covid-19 has forced a large number of people in India to take loans against their household gold more than once since May, according to gold loan non-banking finance companies, as the ongoing pandemic has brought in its wake severe financial distress. As many as 80% of customers have taken loans against gold more than once in the past four months, said executives of gold loan NBFCs. Read More

UTI, Mazagon IPOs next week… UTI AMC and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders are set to launch their IPOs next week. Both issues will open for subscription on September 29 and will close on October 1. UTI AMC IPO is an offer for sale by the existing investors to raise about Rs 2,152-2,160 crore. The price band for the issue has been fixed at Rs 552-554 per share. Investors can bid for a minimum of 27 equity shares and in multiples of 27 shares thereafter. Read More

AND WHO'S

D-Street stocks rout to continue… Technical indicators for India's biggest stocks do point to the shortening odds on a prolonged correction in local equities. More than half the NSE500 stocks have slipped below their 200-day moving average after the week-long selloff triggered by persistent worries of the second wave of Covid-19 and the strengthening of the US dollar. Also, about 170 of the top 500 stocks are currently trading more than 10% below their 200-DMAs, signalling broader weakness. Read More

Stock traders very bearish on D-Street… Fewer positions were carried forward to the October derivatives series on expiry of the September contracts on Thursday as traders fretted about the near-term market prospects following the recent selloff. Analysts said traders, who squared off their bullish bets amid the recent market decline, mostly stayed on the sidelines, while some created fresh short positions with FPIs dumping shares worth Rs 6,000 crore in the past six sessions. Read More

RBI debt rejig plan may turn half-baked… Keeping out bond investors can upend banks' plan to revive a company with one-time loan restructuring. Even if most lending banks agree to a loan rejig plan — as laid out by RBI and KV Kamath committee — it can be derailed by bondholders in the absence of clear rules to bind them to such a scheme. It's a lurking fear among bankers who have to soften loan terms to help hundreds of companies tide over the stress caused by Covid-19 and associated lockdown. Read More

Meanwhile...
Telcos split over 4G auction… Telcos are split over when 4G spectrum auctions should be held. While Reliance Jio is pushing hard for the bidding to take place at the earliest, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea (Vi) are in no hurry and would like the sale process to take place in 2021. Jio, the only profit-making operator, whose parent Jio Platforms recently raised over Rs 1.52 lakh crore, has a large chunk of airwaves permits expiring in its key 800 MHz band in 2021. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,040  -413.65
14,168  -331.25
20,457  -721.65
18,973  -832.6
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

The initial public offer of Angel Broking was subscribed 3.95 times on the final day of offer on Thursday.

IDFC First Bank and a few other investors would be looking to lower their ownership in Suryoday Small Finance Bank, which is in the final laps of making an application for IPO.

A major fire broke out at ONGC's gas processing unit at Hazira in Gujarat early on Thursday. It was extinguished without any casualties, the company said.

Actor Aamir Khan will be CEAT Tyres' brand ambassador for two years. He will be a part of the new marketing campaign of the Mumbai-based company, featuring in two commercials during the course of IPL 2020.

Reliance Jio has become the largest telco in rural India, ending Vodafone Idea's dominance in the segment. Jio's rural mobile user base grew to 166.34 million in June, edging ahead of Vi's 166.02 million, Trai data showed.

Google has approached India's antitrust watchdog to get approval for its proposed Rs 33,737 crore investment in Jio Platforms for a 7.73% stake.

Global buyout funds Warburg Pincus, General Atlantic, Temasek and homegrown private equity fund True North have evinced interest in acquiring a minority stake in Anthem Biosciences.

UnQuote: STREET SIGNS
When IPOs get oversubscribed 100 times, market normally peaks
Samir Arora, Helios Capital

The DAY PLANNER

    UK Gfk Consumer Confidence SEP (04:31 am)
    UK Car Production YoY AUG ( 01:30 pm)
    India Deposit Growth YoY SEP/11 (05:00 pm)
    India RBI Forex Reserves SEP/18 (05:00 pm)
    India Bank Loan Growth YoY SEP/11 ((05:00 pm)
    US Durable Goods Orders MoM AUG (06:00 pm)
    US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 25/SEP (10:30 pm)
    European Council Special Meeting

OUTLOOK

Sept-Oct volatile months for market
    Nischal Maheshwari of Centrum Broking says in the last 10 years or 15 years, market volatility has always risen during September and October. "Especially in September, we have seen good selloffs happening across the world. This time it is no different. The US elections are being held in November and usually near elections, the volatility goes up dramatically. The other thing is every time there is a crisis like Covid, there is a definite government change in the US. So that is another fear which is driving the markets down," says he. Read More

Next few months dicey for equities
    Independent market analyst Sandip Sabharwal says markets were ignoring much of the risks earlier, when there was a frenzied upside on and now those risks are playing out. "We could see some bounceback from current levels, because markets got beaten down around 800-900 points within a short period of time. But we should see lower levels over the next two weeks before the market settles down. The next few months could be dicey as the markets realise that the sustainable V-shaped recovery that they were hoping for might not play out," he said. Read More

5-10% stock correction should be okay
    Alok Singh of BOI AXA Mutual Fund says after a wonderful run, the market is going through a consolidation phase over the past two weeks. "This is what may have frustrated many of the traders because running a position is a cost but not for a long only fund like us. I am not too worried. It has been corrected from the top and if that is anywhere between 5-10%, it is an okay correction. Yes, the Dollar Index has moved up towards 94, but one has to look at it in conjunction with the bonds. In the last two-three days, while equity markets have corrected, the Dollar Index has risen, but bonds have not rallied that much," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Quess Corp Ltd. 24 Sep, 2020 | 11:00 AM IST buyBuy
TeamLease Services Ltd. 24 Sep, 2020 | 10:54 AM IST SellHold


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