Sunday, 27 September 2020

Lakshmi Vilas Bank sees coup by shareholders | RBI may mull quantitative easing | Traders most bearish on banks

MORNING NEWSLETTER

28 Sep, 2020 | 08:53 AM IST


Good Morning!

As the race for White House hots up, Wall Street is split vertically: Biden stocks are said to be those related to global trade and renewable energy, while Trump seems to be favouring fossil fuel and defence stocks. For instance, life under Biden would be a lot simpler for Apple, one stock analyst told Reuters. The view is, Trump, who favours deregulation, is a better option for the stock market than Biden, who is widely expected to raise taxes. So, brace for action in individual stocks & indices as presidential debates kick off, with the first one due this Tuesday.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 59 points up at 7 am (IST) this morning, indicating a positive start for Dalal Street.

    On Friday, Nifty50 snapped a six-day losing streak in style and rebounded to from a bullish candle on the daily chart and a bearish candle on the weekly chart.

    Asian shares were on the defensive, ahead of a US Presidential debate and as coronavirus cases spike again in a blow to global economic recovery hopes. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.04 per cent. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.65 per cent, while South Korea's KOSPI index gained 0.8 per cent.

    US stocks gained on Friday. The S&P500 rose 51.87 points, or 1.6 per cent, while the Dow gained 358 points, or 1.3 per cent and the Nasdaq 241 points, or 2.3 per cent.

    Oil prices dipped again on Monday as rising coronavirus cases upset hopes for a smooth recovery in fuel demand, with crude on track for its first monthly fall in many months after slipping last week. Brent crude edged down 8 cents, or 0.2 per cent, to $41.84 a barrel, WTI crude futures fell 20 cents to $40.05.

    The rupee strengthened by 28 paise to settle at 73.61 against the US dollar on Friday, as gains in domestic equities buoyed investor sentiment.

    The dollar hovered near a two-week high against the Japanese yen. The euro closed in on a two-month trough of $.1611 touched on Friday. The British pound rose 0.1%.

    Gold and silver prices tumbled last week to register their biggest weekly fall in many months. On MCX, gold futures settled at Rs 49,666 per 10 gm and silver at Rs 59,018 a kg. On a weekly basis, gold prices fell by Rs 2,000 per 10 gm.

LOOK WHO'S

Sept quarter GDP may shrink less... India's economy may have contracted at a slower pace in the September quarter compared with the preceding three-month period, said economists surveyed by ET, pegging it a median 11.95%. They warned that the recovery will be patchy and uncertain though the worst may be over. They called for a strong fiscal package to boost demand and even suggested monetisation if the bond market could not support a borrowings-funded stimulus. Read More

UTI IPO looks promising... Investors may consider investments in UTI Asset Management Company in the secondary markets. Deep and wide geographical reach beyond metros, decades-long existence in the mutual funds industry, and strong presence in a wide variety of equity and other investment products are a few key business strengths of the company. Read More

Farm bills become law... President Ram Nath Kovind on Sunday approved three agricultural bills amid nationwide protests by farmers who say the new laws will stunt their bargaining power and instead allow large retailers to have control over pricing.Farmers' organisations say one of the three laws could lead to the government stopping buying grain at guaranteed prices, a move that would disrupt wholesale markets which have so far ensured fair and timely payments to farmers. Read More

AND WHO'S

LVB lands in a soup... The beleaguered rump board of troubled Lakshmi Vilas Bank sought RBI help in securing a CEO after a dramatic shareholder coup on Friday left the 94-year-old bank without a CEO and promoter. Seven board members were voted out by irate shareholders who blamed them for the bank's sliding performance and mounting bad loans. The bank late on Sunday sought to reassure depositors and investors about its liquidity position, saying that it was comfortable. Read More
RBI, bond investors at odds... Bond investors and RBI appear to be on a collision course, evident in last week's auction outcomes, as the government and its merchant banker keep the markets guessing on how they plan to fund record borrowings in the second half of FY21. Last week's devolvement at the bond auction and the RBI's rejection of the market's yield expectations in a bond purchase programme show that Mint Road needs to take one of the following two steps: Either explicitly state its tolerance level on bond yields or announce a quantitative easing programme as central banks in advanced nations have done. Read More

Traders most bearish on banks... The strength shown by the bulls on Friday after falling to a four-month low the previous day could face challenges in the days ahead. With foreign funds stepping up their selling of stocks amid an increase in Covid-19 cases in various countries including India, jittery investors are wondering if markets may be able to sustain their gains made since late March. Traders are most bearish on banks, going by the bearish bets that have been rolled over into the October series. Read More

RBI unlikely to cut rate... India's central bank is unlikely to change the benchmark lending rate in its October bi-monthly policy review, which will be analysed threadbare by investors for Mint Road's first commentary on inflation and growth estimates since the early summer pandemic outbreak. According to an ET survey conducted among 20 market participants, only Bank of America expects a rate cut by 15 basis points. The rest expect a status quo on both rates and policy stance, now set at 'accommodative'. Read More

Meanwhile...
NRIs' tax puzzle after long India stay... Individuals who are stuck in India due to the restrictions on international flights and entities that have to make payments to them are caught in an uncertain situation because of a lack of clarity in the residency status of the former. Entities making payments to individuals have to deduct tax. The specified rate for such deduction is different for residents and nonresidents. With dividend payouts from companies lined up, people stuck in the country and payee entities both are in a fix. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,504 + 464.2
14,496 + 327.3
20,982 + 525.5
19,629 + 656.3
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

The much-awaited reverse book building process for delisting the metals and mining giant Vedanta is likely to start early next week as the company is expected to get the stock exchange approval in a day or two

Harley-Davidson is exploring marketing and distribution tie-ups to continue selling imported bikes in India, even as the US manufacturer engages with local market leader Hero MotorCorp for joint projects on mid-size motorcycles.

State-owned BPCL has been forced to pay for its defaulting partner Videocon Industries after it had relied on a rarely used model to acquire stake in five oil blocks in Brazil

Kalyan Toll Infrastructure has emerged the top bidder for the Lanco Group's Bengaluru-Hoskote-Mulbagal toll road project on National Highway 4,

Vodafone Group Plc's win in the international arbitration against India in a retrospective tax case does not change local joint venture Vodafone Idea's weak ground situation and is unlikely to trigger fresh investment momentum, even from its British parent, said analysts.

Vodafone Idea (Vi) will upgrade its 3G users to 4G in its key markets, as the telecom operator seeks to bridge the gap with rivals Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio that have a larger 4G coverage.

UnQuote: NEED OF THE HOUR
Industry must put more money in new projects
Vipin Anand, Managing Director, LIC

The DAY PLANNER

    Japan Leading Economic Index Final JUL (10:30 am)
    ECB Schnabel Speech (03:15 pm)
    ECB President Lagarde Speech (07:15 pm)
    US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index SEP (08:00 pm)

OUTLOOK

Time to pick banking stocks
    Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal says a lot of bank stocks like ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, some of the NBFC names and a lot of other companies look very attractive from a medium- to long-term perspective. "They are now less than one-time book and the business models are very good. So those also can be added selectively. Allocations should be made into pharma, IT and banking. I would definitely be picking up banking stocks from the current levels," says he. Read More

Pharma, IT to underperform in risk-on trade
    Independent markete expert Kunal Bothra says the trends are very clear. "IT, pharma and even a couple of FMCG stocks saw very good buying in the first half of last week. But then when the market gets into a risk-on phase from a risk-off one, there will be an eventual shift, and IT and pharma will underperform. They will not go into the negative territory. There might still be some individual buying, which can happen in largecap pharma and IT names, but largely these sectors will underperform when there is a risk-on trades," says he. Read More

Ease off on pharma stocks now
    Independent market analyst Anand Tandon says the pharma sector started from a base where most people were underweight on it and there were too many issues surrounding it. "It has got to a stage where it is now more than fully priced for the current level of earnings. Unlike IT or some of the other sectors, there is no potential for dramatic surprise. It is not as if you will certainly start buying more medicines or you will certainly start having to deal with something which can give you extremely higher margins. It is a sector where you should be now easing off fairly significantly" says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
The Anup Engineering Ltd. 25 Sep, 2020 | 12:35 PM IST buyBuy
Oil India Ltd. 25 Sep, 2020 | 02:02 PM IST buyBuy


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