Monday, 21 September 2020

Ruchir Sharma sees India revival only in 2022 | GMM Pfaudler OFS at 33% discount | Angel Broking IPO opens today

MORNING NEWSLETTER

22 Sep, 2020 | 08:44 AM IST


Good Morning!

The FinCEN files leak could not have come at a worse time for banks, globally. The documents involving about $2 trillion worth of transactions reveal how some of the world's biggest banks allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world. And the list features biggest of the banking names; HSBC, JP Morgan, Barclays, StanChart, Deutsche, and who not! Back home too, ICJI – which obtained the international banking system's most closely guarded secrets – has named almost every top Indian bank worth its salt. Money laundering is a term used for shifting dirty money into an account in a respected bank not be linked to any crime. You don't know who you can bank on now!

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 76 points higher at 7 am (IST) this morning, signalling a possible rebound ahead for Dalal Street.

    On Monday, Nifty formed a Bearish candle on a daily scale as is headed towards its 50-DEMA, which analysts said did not bode well for the bulls. As long as Nifty sustains below 11,333 level, more weakness can be seen towards 11,111 and 11,000 levels, the said.

    Asian shares opened weaker on Tuesday on concerns about new pandemic lockdowns in Europe and after reports about financial institutions allegedly moving illicit funds hurt global banking stocks. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.9%, South Korea's Kospi 1.4%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.3%. Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8%.

    Wall Street's main indices tumbled on Monday as concerns about new lockdowns in Europe and possible delays in fresh stimulus from Congress. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.84% in overnight trade, while the S&P 500 lost 1.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite 0.13%.

    Oil clawed back some of its biggest decline in almost two weeks on mounting worries over prolonged coronavirus restrictions and supply concerns. WTI crude rose 0.92% to $39.67 a barrel while Brent was flat at $41.44.

    The rupee strengthened 7 paise and closed at 73.38 against the US dollar on Monday, even as the domestic equity market traded with significant losses.

    A resurgent dollar held on to overnight gains on Tuesday after virus fears and worries about U.S. stimulus drove a wave of selling in just about everything else. The greenback rose 0.6% against the euro, 0.9% against the Aussie and even made gains against the safe-haven currencies of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The euro dipped 0.03 per cent.

    Gold and silver prices tumbled on Monday following a global selloff in precious metals and as well as equities. On MCX, gold futures tumbled 2.7 per cent or Rs 1,500 to Rs 50,300 per 10 gm while silver futures crashed 9% or Rs 6,000 to Rs 61,802 a kg. On Tuesday, spot gold added 0.2% to $1,917.06 an ounce after a 3.5% drop on Monday.

LOOK WHO'S

Top funds play angel to Angel Broking IPO… Angel Broking has raised Rs 180 crore by allotting 58.82 lakh shares to 12 anchor investors ahead of its initial public offer. Anchor investors include Goldman Sachs, IIFL, Bajaj Allianz, Max Life Insurance and domestic mutual funds such as ICICI Pru, HDFC, Sundaram, Nippon, Invesco and Birla. The IPO will open for subscription on September 22 with a price band of Rs 305-306 per equity share. Read More

GMM Pfaudler OFS at 33% discount… India's largest manufacturer of glass-lined equipment has announced an offer for sale (OFS) by the promoters at a floor price of Rs 3,500, a 33% discount to its current market price of ?5,203. The promoters Pfaudler Inc and Urmi Patel are selling 25.71 lakh shares or 17.59% of the total equity with an option to additionally sell 15.22 lakh shares (10.41%). Non-retail investors can subscribe to the issue on Tuesday while the window will open for retail investors on Wednesday. Read More

Consumer firms boost ad blitz… India's largest consumer-facing companies across sectors including LG, Samsung, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai Motor, Mahindra & Mahindra, Amazon, Flipkart, ITC, Xiaomi, Croma, Voltas, Grofers and Lloyd are going to pull out all the stops on marketing and advertising spending for the festive season, either matching last year's budget or exceeding it by as much as 30%. While the spends are higher year on year for consumer durables, smartphone and ecommerce companies, for car makers facing a sustained market decline they are 15-20% higher quarter on quarter across vehicle makers. Read More

EPFO enrolments doubles in July… Net enrolments under Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) jumped to 8.45 lakh in July from 4.82 lakh in June 2020 as the lockdown eased leading to some pickup in economic activity. Monthly addition in July was much higher than the average monthly addition of 7 lakh in the previous year. Delayed filing of returns by establishments is also likely to have contributed to the jump. Read More

Govt hikes MSPs before schedule… The government has raised minimum support prices (MSP) of the rabi, or winter-sown, crops by up to 6.3% and announced the new rates a month before it usually does to reassure farmers that the new laws on agriculture will not dilute MSP operations. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved higher prices of crops such as wheat and pulses on Monday. The hike is in the range of 2.1% to 6.3% with maximum increase of Rs 300 a quintal in the MSP of moong while the floor price of wheat has been increased by Rs 50 a quintal. Read More

AND WHO'S

Lockdown fears haunt stock investors… Domestic stocks tumbled over 2% on Monday mirroring global weakness as the rapid rise in Covid-19 cases in Europe revived fears of fresh curbs on people movement. Midcap and smallcap shares — which had outperformed over the past week — suffered bigger losses as the unexpected drop mid-way through the session triggered margin calls by brokers, forcing retail investors to cut exposure. News reports said France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK had witnessed a renewed surge in Covid-19 cases over the weekend, causing European markets to decline almost 3%. Read More

Ruchir Sharma says India to normalise only in 2022… The Indian economy is unlikely to achieve the same level of output that it had before the Covid-19 pandemic until possibly March-April 2022, according to global investor and bestselling author Ruchir Sharma. He said two years of output growth have been wiped out. "Assuming India trend growth rate is about 5%, we will be basically 10% below our trend growth rate in the middle of 2022," he said in an interview with ET. Read More

HUL top boss calls for govt spending… Hindustan Unilever (HUL) chairman Sanjiv Mehta said India needs to be "aggressive with spending" before it's too late and called for interest rates to be slashed given the signs of urban distress that have emerged in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. "There is a curve of cost of doing and the cost of not doing," Mehta said in a web interaction with Ficci president Sangita Reddy on Monday. Read More

Meanwhile...
Kwality in soup over loan fraud… The police on Monday registered a case against dairy company Kwality and its directors for allegedly cheating a consortium of banks of around Rs 1,400 crore ($190 million) on Bank of India. Founded in 1992, the company describes itself as one of India's fastest growing private dairy firms, with six manufacturing units, and exports to more than 28 countries, according to its website. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,765  -634.25
14,747  -552.64
21,367  -664.25
19,729  -98.1
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

Apollo Global Management and Renuka Ramnath's Multiples Alternate Asset Management have entered the race to acquire the Piramal Group's glass business — considered Asia's biggest for specialty products.

Bhushan Power and Steel (BPSL) promoter Sanjay Singal has filed an appeal against State Bank of India's (SBI) decision to invoke his personal guarantee for failing to pay dues of the company.

HCL Technologies will acquire Australian IT services firm DWS for $115.8 million in a bid to further expand its digital offerings, especially in Australia and New Zealand. DWS had revenues of $122.9 m in FY20 and has a staff of over 700.

JSW Steel will raise up to $1 billion through a combination of offshore bonds and loans, a corpus that could come in handy if the pandemic were to hasten consolidation in the industry.

The Dalmia Group's refractory manufacturing arm, Dalmia OCL, has announced opening a 1.08 lakh tonne brownfield facility in Odisha to make magnesia carbon refractory bricks, reducing import reliance on China.

Clients of Indian IT services providers, including Wipro, are looking to invest in digital transformation projects following a pause in tech spending during the first quarter due to the pandemic, Wipro Chairman Rishad Premji said.

UnQuote: WHERE'S THE MONEY?
Start nibbling at top 5-6 banks via SIPs
S Naren, ICICI Pru AMC

The DAY PLANNER

    UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders SEP (03:30 pm)
    ECB Panetta Speech (05:30 pm)
    US Redbook YoY 19/SEP (06:25 pm)
    Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash SEP (07:30 pm)
    ECB Lane Speech (07.30 pm)
    US Existing Home Sales MoM JUL (07:30 pm)
    US Fed Chair Powell Testimony (08:00 pm)

OUTLOOK

Has pharma become a crowded trade?
    Independent market analyst Sandip Sabharwal says for the near term, a large part of the rally in pharma stocks has played out, because it is the most crowded trade today. "A lot of people I talk to are 30-40% into pharma now, because that has been the sector that has been performing and a lot of stories are getting built up especially around the API opportunity, etc. Finally, API companies are a lot like commodity companies. They are not really branded companies and for them to trade at 30-40 PE is not justified. Plus their earnings tend to fluctuate a lot," says he. Read More

Are FPIs still bullish on India?
    Amit Shah of BNP Paribas says foreign institutional investors' concern about Indian equities is apparent for two reasons. "First, the decline in earnings estimates across most sectors in an environment of a sharp contraction in macroeconomic activity and second India's premium valuations relative to peers, despite a sharper pace of earnings decline. FIIs benchmarked to Global Emerging Markets (GEM) are neutral on India, having reduced their position from a significant overweight 2-3 years ago. That said, over the past couple of months, some investors have been pointing to earnings estimate recovery in some of the cyclical sectors and a demand recovery reported by consumer discretionary and consumer staples companies to argue in favour of increasing their India positions. However, on balance, such investors are in a minority today," says he. Read More

Agri alone can't pull up India's GDP
    Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor, ET NOW, says agriculture is only 14 per cent of India's GDP and that cannot pull up the whole 100 per cent. "It is only one-seventh of the total. Secondly, the reason agri is doing relatively well is it I can close down industry, I can close down services, but I cannot close down agri, I cannot suddenly tell the cows not to produce milk, I cannot shut down the crops from growing. So the government lockdown did not affect agriculture and that is why agriculture has done relatively well," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Asian Paints Ltd. 21 Sep, 2020 | 12:48 PM IST buyAdd
Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. 21 Sep, 2020 | 01:57 PM IST buyBuy


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